Afghanistan
This is the Next Century Foundation's Afghanistan Blogsite. The objective of The Next Century Foundation is conflict resolution and reconciliation. We bring together opinion formers in an informal atmosphere where confidentiality can be maintained. The Next Century Foundation works with individuals who share a common vision; a climate of order and security that can enable the pursuit of peace and reconciliation with justice.
Updated: 5 min 18 sec ago
UK pull out from Sangin
There has been much discussion in the press about the British pull out from Sangin in early July. It was the area in which the UK suffered its heaviest losses; around 100 deaths since 2001. Though only having a tenth of British troops in Afghanistan, it contributed almost a third of total British military losses.
In some ways, the move seems entirely logical – even routine. The US has recently increased troops in Afghanistan by 30,000 which means that the ratio of British to US troops has shifted and so the ratio of responsibilities should shift too. Furthermore, British troops need to consolidate the gains they have made in Central Helmand and freeing up troops from Sangin would help do that.
However, there are some worrying things to be noted from this episode. The first is the reaction from the military itself; they were insistent that it be called a re-deployment, and not a retreat. In some ways, by vehemently claiming it was not a retreat, the military actually made it look more like a retreat. The phrase “methinks he doth protest too much” really comes to mind!
Another area for concern is that many of the problems faced by British troops in Sangin are similar in other areas of Afghanistan. The volatile mix of clans around Sangin highlighted the lack of planning in Britain’s venture, as they did not have the adequate knowledge to deal effectively with these local tribes. The difficult terrain required more British helicopters, which never came. Local militants, who knew the lay of the land, were able to kill British troops through mastering two tactics, the use of the sniper rifle and the use of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). Asked about the vulnerability of British troops in Sangin, Brigadier George Norton said: “We are all vulnerable to IEDs, but the insurgents are increasingly using long-distance small arms.” Major General Gordon Messenger, the Ministry of Defence’s chief military spokesman, said Taliban-led insurgents were resorting to what he described as an “increasing use of single shots at range”. The issue is, if British troops couldn’t think of adequate tactics to deal with this type of insurgency in Sangin, how can we have much hope for the rest of Afghanistan?
Finally, the reaction of the Taliban to this is absolute delight. Over and above the physical workings of the war, the war to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans is raging. Afghan support for coalition troops is already very strained, not helped by the “collateral damage” by which thousands of Afghans have been killed. Now, what the Taliban will portray as a coalition failure, will further encourage ordinary Afghans to switch their allegiance; why wouldn’t they if they think the Coalition forces are beginning their retreat?
In some ways, the move seems entirely logical – even routine. The US has recently increased troops in Afghanistan by 30,000 which means that the ratio of British to US troops has shifted and so the ratio of responsibilities should shift too. Furthermore, British troops need to consolidate the gains they have made in Central Helmand and freeing up troops from Sangin would help do that.
However, there are some worrying things to be noted from this episode. The first is the reaction from the military itself; they were insistent that it be called a re-deployment, and not a retreat. In some ways, by vehemently claiming it was not a retreat, the military actually made it look more like a retreat. The phrase “methinks he doth protest too much” really comes to mind!
Another area for concern is that many of the problems faced by British troops in Sangin are similar in other areas of Afghanistan. The volatile mix of clans around Sangin highlighted the lack of planning in Britain’s venture, as they did not have the adequate knowledge to deal effectively with these local tribes. The difficult terrain required more British helicopters, which never came. Local militants, who knew the lay of the land, were able to kill British troops through mastering two tactics, the use of the sniper rifle and the use of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). Asked about the vulnerability of British troops in Sangin, Brigadier George Norton said: “We are all vulnerable to IEDs, but the insurgents are increasingly using long-distance small arms.” Major General Gordon Messenger, the Ministry of Defence’s chief military spokesman, said Taliban-led insurgents were resorting to what he described as an “increasing use of single shots at range”. The issue is, if British troops couldn’t think of adequate tactics to deal with this type of insurgency in Sangin, how can we have much hope for the rest of Afghanistan?
Finally, the reaction of the Taliban to this is absolute delight. Over and above the physical workings of the war, the war to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans is raging. Afghan support for coalition troops is already very strained, not helped by the “collateral damage” by which thousands of Afghans have been killed. Now, what the Taliban will portray as a coalition failure, will further encourage ordinary Afghans to switch their allegiance; why wouldn’t they if they think the Coalition forces are beginning their retreat?
Rory Stewart: Afghanistan & Western Policymaking
He was born in Hong Kong and raised in Malaysia. He recounts tales of ham and cheese sandwiches followed by raft building deep in the Malaysian wilderness - aged four years old. He served in the British Army as an officer and studied at Oxford University reading History and Philosophy. Since then he has enjoyed a prestigious career in the Foreign Office - working in places such as Kosovo and Indonesia. He has penned two critically acclaimed books. He has walked over 6000 miles in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, India and Nepal. At the age of thirty he was made Deputy Governer in a province in Southern Iraq subsequent to the US-led invasion of Iraq. In academia he has excelled holding the distinguished Directorship of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. And in 2010 he was elected to the UK parliament.
His name, if you do not know yet, is Rory Stewart. And this is only a brief sketch of his career and life thus far. Incredibly he is only thirty-seven years old!
And his analysis of Western policymaking, in particular, the much heralded "Afpak Strategy" is at times powerful:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v31/n13/rory-stewart/the-irresistible-illusion
More and More die in lost war
The number of deaths in Afghanistan have reached an all time high. More Western servicemen killed than ever before, bucking the seasonal trends. Not good news. According to the MEC analytical group:
According to the latest quarterly report on the situation by the Secretary General of the UN on 16 June (http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N10/400/06/PDF/N1040006.pdf?OpenElement ):
Overall, the number of security incidents increased significantly, compared to previous years and contrary to seasonal trends. This is attributable to an increase in military operations in the southern region during the first quarter of 2010 and to significant anti-government element activities in the south-east and eastern regions of Afghanistan . . .
The majority of incidents continue to involve armed clashes and improvised explosive devices, each accounting for one third of the reported incidents. The rise in incidents involving improvised explosive devices constitutes an alarming trend, with the first four months of 2010 recording a 94 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2009. Suicide attacks occur at a rate of about three per week, half of which occur in the southern region. Complex suicide attacks are recorded at roughly two per month, higher than the average of one complex attack per month during 2009. . .The shift to more complex suicide attacks demonstrates a growing capability of the local terrorist networks linked to Al-Qaida Insurgents followed up their threats against the civilian population with, on average, seven assassinations every week, the majority of which were conducted in the south and south-east regions. This constitutes a 45 per cent increase, compared to the same period in 2009. In the south, high-profile assassinations of civil servants, clerics and elders in Kandahar City (including the Deputy Mayor and the head of the Agriculture Cooperative Department) are aimed at establishing control over the urban population.
According to the latest quarterly report on the situation by the Secretary General of the UN on 16 June (http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N10/400/06/PDF/N1040006.pdf?OpenElement ):
Overall, the number of security incidents increased significantly, compared to previous years and contrary to seasonal trends. This is attributable to an increase in military operations in the southern region during the first quarter of 2010 and to significant anti-government element activities in the south-east and eastern regions of Afghanistan . . .
The majority of incidents continue to involve armed clashes and improvised explosive devices, each accounting for one third of the reported incidents. The rise in incidents involving improvised explosive devices constitutes an alarming trend, with the first four months of 2010 recording a 94 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2009. Suicide attacks occur at a rate of about three per week, half of which occur in the southern region. Complex suicide attacks are recorded at roughly two per month, higher than the average of one complex attack per month during 2009. . .The shift to more complex suicide attacks demonstrates a growing capability of the local terrorist networks linked to Al-Qaida Insurgents followed up their threats against the civilian population with, on average, seven assassinations every week, the majority of which were conducted in the south and south-east regions. This constitutes a 45 per cent increase, compared to the same period in 2009. In the south, high-profile assassinations of civil servants, clerics and elders in Kandahar City (including the Deputy Mayor and the head of the Agriculture Cooperative Department) are aimed at establishing control over the urban population.
Ajmal Attacked
Justin sends this disturbing news about our friend Ajmal:
To all concerned about CHIEF AJMAL KHAN
Further to email below from yesterday: see http://blog.freerangeinternational.com/. The article appears below the email.
Ajmal, unhurt despite his car seat being peppered with bullets, was ambushed for 45 minutes in Zazi Valley yesterday while in 18 vehicle convoy, a concerted attack causing casualties with viz rocket launchers and machine guns by Taliban with identifiable suicide bombers on the loose. The Police chief, who is supported by US and NATO, and forces stood idly by with involvement presumed for good reason. US military did not react and were ambushed later. Khan has no US hardware support while the perpetrators are well armed. Help requested re hardware and action on Police chief. Urgent. Khan’s number: 00 821 6444 27606.
The name of the Police Chief is Nabi.
Last night I received a call from my good friend Chief Ajmal Khan Azizi who had just escaped a serious Taliban ambush. As I reported in this post last February Chief Azizi had returned to his tribal homelands to coordinate with The Boss on reconstruction projects and to renew his pleading with the American army stationed in his area for support in battling the Taliban. Ajmal is a tribal chief as well as a Canadian citizen. He has gone hat in hand to London, Kabul and Washington DC to raise support for his beleaguered tribal area, and although he finds a sympathetic audience wherever he goes, what he never gets is a firm commitment to help. I am not the only one taking up his cause, The Boss has been working with the US Embassy in Kabul and Steven Pressfield published a multi part interview with Ajmal this year too.
Last night as Ajmal was moving through the town of Ali Khel near the Pakistan border, he was ambushed by a platoon of Pakistani Taliban. They recognized them as Pakistani’s due to their accents when the attackers shouted back and forth to each other during the 45 minute fight. As these things normally are the ambush was initiated with an IED explosion followed by small arms fire (SAF) and RPG’s. I talked with the chief of the Zazi Valley police, Amir Mohammad who said the Paki’s shot volley after volley from at least 6 RPG’s and they threw over 14 grenades during the fight. Ajmal called on the near by Afghan Border Police for help and they declined to intervene, so the ambush was not broken until Zazi Valley tribal police reinforcements showed up and drove the attackers back towards Pakistan. Ajmal lost a truck and had three men wounded. One of them was seriously wounded and was being transported to Kabul (a five hour drive) in order to get him proper medical care.
To all concerned about CHIEF AJMAL KHAN
Further to email below from yesterday: see http://blog.freerangeinternational.com/. The article appears below the email.
Ajmal, unhurt despite his car seat being peppered with bullets, was ambushed for 45 minutes in Zazi Valley yesterday while in 18 vehicle convoy, a concerted attack causing casualties with viz rocket launchers and machine guns by Taliban with identifiable suicide bombers on the loose. The Police chief, who is supported by US and NATO, and forces stood idly by with involvement presumed for good reason. US military did not react and were ambushed later. Khan has no US hardware support while the perpetrators are well armed. Help requested re hardware and action on Police chief. Urgent. Khan’s number: 00 821 6444 27606.
The name of the Police Chief is Nabi.
Last night I received a call from my good friend Chief Ajmal Khan Azizi who had just escaped a serious Taliban ambush. As I reported in this post last February Chief Azizi had returned to his tribal homelands to coordinate with The Boss on reconstruction projects and to renew his pleading with the American army stationed in his area for support in battling the Taliban. Ajmal is a tribal chief as well as a Canadian citizen. He has gone hat in hand to London, Kabul and Washington DC to raise support for his beleaguered tribal area, and although he finds a sympathetic audience wherever he goes, what he never gets is a firm commitment to help. I am not the only one taking up his cause, The Boss has been working with the US Embassy in Kabul and Steven Pressfield published a multi part interview with Ajmal this year too.
Last night as Ajmal was moving through the town of Ali Khel near the Pakistan border, he was ambushed by a platoon of Pakistani Taliban. They recognized them as Pakistani’s due to their accents when the attackers shouted back and forth to each other during the 45 minute fight. As these things normally are the ambush was initiated with an IED explosion followed by small arms fire (SAF) and RPG’s. I talked with the chief of the Zazi Valley police, Amir Mohammad who said the Paki’s shot volley after volley from at least 6 RPG’s and they threw over 14 grenades during the fight. Ajmal called on the near by Afghan Border Police for help and they declined to intervene, so the ambush was not broken until Zazi Valley tribal police reinforcements showed up and drove the attackers back towards Pakistan. Ajmal lost a truck and had three men wounded. One of them was seriously wounded and was being transported to Kabul (a five hour drive) in order to get him proper medical care.
Getting worse
Sobering words from a friend in Afghanistan:
Not sure how fast this country is heading further down the downward spiral but any rays of optimism are being blanketed by the multi-layered clouds of corruption, hypocrisy and dysfunctionality to name but a few. Sadly there is no western leadership, inspiration or hard handed determination to keep in check (let alone protect its citizens) or moderate the loose-canon of leadership here. Just think of this place as a war machine - chaos and dysfunctionality are the oil which keeps the machine rolling and as long as the machine is rolling pockets are being lined and bank balances swelled for the knights and the bishops playing this global game of chess - while the pawns are thrown around the table to sacrifice their lives in the name of freedom or fall further down the tunnel of poverty. This is a modern day Alice in Wonderland - the Dormouse of the West sleeps at the table of - the Tweedle Dums and Tweedle Dees of "diplomacy" continue to twiddle their thumbs while the Mad Hatter and King and Queen of Hearts execute their crazy dance around the kingdom of insanity - the Caterpillar smokes his hookah of magic mushrooms and "embedded" media reporter Alice is on a permanent high as she takes "trips" down the tunnel baffled by all the madness around her - - and for those who have faith in the existance of the the illusiary White Rabbit of Resolution they now begin to question whether it exists or not. Meanwhile the Machinary of War continues to churn out it conveyor belt of profits.
There is no honor in this country as it stands now - sadly the only honor we acknowledge is measured in human sacrifice as we watch the corteges crawling through the streets of Wootton Bassett honouring the young fallen Brits - or wtiness the same in some small town in Georgia or Alabama - or France - or Italy or Germany. What about the poor innocent Afghan villagers - men women and children slaughtered by the Taliban - or young girls getting gassed in their school by "enlightened" Taliban intent on denying women any degree of human rights or - whole villahes blown to bits by errant "drone"missiles. Who will honor them in this Afghan war machine? Meanwhile while the fat-cats getting fatter and fatter and continue to lick the ever increasing amount of cream accumulating round their greedy mouths.
So much for the dreams of Afghanistan - as perceived by a cynical old curmudgeon.
Not sure how fast this country is heading further down the downward spiral but any rays of optimism are being blanketed by the multi-layered clouds of corruption, hypocrisy and dysfunctionality to name but a few. Sadly there is no western leadership, inspiration or hard handed determination to keep in check (let alone protect its citizens) or moderate the loose-canon of leadership here. Just think of this place as a war machine - chaos and dysfunctionality are the oil which keeps the machine rolling and as long as the machine is rolling pockets are being lined and bank balances swelled for the knights and the bishops playing this global game of chess - while the pawns are thrown around the table to sacrifice their lives in the name of freedom or fall further down the tunnel of poverty. This is a modern day Alice in Wonderland - the Dormouse of the West sleeps at the table of - the Tweedle Dums and Tweedle Dees of "diplomacy" continue to twiddle their thumbs while the Mad Hatter and King and Queen of Hearts execute their crazy dance around the kingdom of insanity - the Caterpillar smokes his hookah of magic mushrooms and "embedded" media reporter Alice is on a permanent high as she takes "trips" down the tunnel baffled by all the madness around her - - and for those who have faith in the existance of the the illusiary White Rabbit of Resolution they now begin to question whether it exists or not. Meanwhile the Machinary of War continues to churn out it conveyor belt of profits.
There is no honor in this country as it stands now - sadly the only honor we acknowledge is measured in human sacrifice as we watch the corteges crawling through the streets of Wootton Bassett honouring the young fallen Brits - or wtiness the same in some small town in Georgia or Alabama - or France - or Italy or Germany. What about the poor innocent Afghan villagers - men women and children slaughtered by the Taliban - or young girls getting gassed in their school by "enlightened" Taliban intent on denying women any degree of human rights or - whole villahes blown to bits by errant "drone"missiles. Who will honor them in this Afghan war machine? Meanwhile while the fat-cats getting fatter and fatter and continue to lick the ever increasing amount of cream accumulating round their greedy mouths.
So much for the dreams of Afghanistan - as perceived by a cynical old curmudgeon.