The Next Century Foundation

NCF daily Report on Syria – Casualties – Report dated 31 July 2012 (evening)

This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:

1)       NCF Casualty estimates and

2)       All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog  on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES

Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

Again, we have delayed the publication of this report to get all information available. And again, we acknowledge the inaccuracy of much of the data here. We are using all available sources. We are glad to see that the government SANA website has again started reporting some casualty figures after more than a month in which it failed to give any figures. The additional source is useful. Less helpful is the fact that the Syrian Observatory’s figures are becoming more difficult to follow. At the time of writing their figures for Thursday were not available and they have started classifying some bodies as unidentified (perhaps understandably given the levels of violence) which means it becomes impossible to know whether they are rebel fighters or civilians. This week we have decided to classify unidentified bodies as civilian but we will review the policy. We must again caution you that there are no independent sources (other than the occasional news report). We note that rebel casualties are therefore under-reported and government / civilian casualties probably over reported. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the NCF Syria blog on the link listed above.

Those killed in the past week

The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

(LCC figure minus highest rebel casualty figure)

REBEL CASUALTIES

(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures) – even so the figures for rebel dead are clearly hugely underreported this week

GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

(The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties.)

 Weekly Casualty estimates

The number of civilian casualties has remained massive but held steady during the past week. The number of combatants killed has decreased. Note that the number of rebel dead are underreported as usual with rebel dead, in some instances, counted as civilian dead (as a consequence of which we will reconsider our method of calculating rebel dead as of next week – possibly changing from taking the highest available figure per day, to the highest available figure per district per day):

Civilian dead:

829 dead this past week ending 30 July

848 dead last week ending 23 July

454 dead the week ending 16 July

462 dead the week ending 9 July

665 dead the week ending 2 July

373 dead the week ended 25 June 

350 dead the week ended 18 June 

105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:

199 dead this past week ending 30 July

211 dead last week ending 23 July

170 dead the week ending 16 July

70 dead the week ending 9 July

107 dead the week ending 2 July

77 dead the week ended 25 June

41 dead the week ended 18 June 

40 dead the week ended 11 June 

Government dead:

228 dead this past week ending 30 July

348 dead last week ending 23 July

237 dead the week ending 16 July

191 dead last week ending 9 July

256 dead the week ending 2 July

143 dead the week ended 25 June

53 dead the week ended 18 June 

92 dead the week ended 11 June 

Casualties in more detail

The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.

TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).