MEPP Update

To all members of the MEPP Working   Group
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Happy New   Year (to those of you for whom it is, to others simply happiness...). Please   excuse the break in circulations.  As always, the small size and large   workload of NCF have conspired to keep me from writing for a while.  A lot   has happened in the MEPP since I last wrote.  Not least, NCF has attempted   to continue to do whatever little it can, with our Pilgrim Hall conference last   month.  A working paper from this conference will be forthcoming, though I   suspect that many of our members in attendance will have enjoyed those track-two   explorations that cannot yet be committed to paper the most.  And there   were certainly some interesting mixtures to be seen sharing cigarettes...    Outside, naturally.   
 
As for   analyses, here is one  especially   noteworthy article from Zbigniew Brzezinski in the FT, and here is a broad take on   Bush and the Arab world from Fouad Ajami in the WSJ.  Another   good analysis on the requirements of the current process comes   from the Reut Institute.   
 
Watching   every snippet of news-conference available, from the tarmac to the PM's   residence, to Ramallah, I couldn't help but think that there were extraordinary   things going on here, lost in a (understandable) wave of cynicism.  Lucky   for me, Jeremy Bowen   picked it up too.   
 
Given the overwhelming   sense that the conditions for the post-Annapolis process to go anywhere are just   not in place (one of many experts to   offer this view is Robert Malley of Crisis Group), I shall cautiously offer   a different narrative.  I am naturally as sceptical as most of these far   more eminent experts.  However, given what is at stake, we can hardly   afford for scepticism to turn into cynicism, so rather I will try and paint a   positive picture.  It will not be as hopeful as Tony   Klug's interesting excercise in optimism for the Fabian Society, but I   certainly see potentially momentous political changes taking   place.   The world as it is today demands the expansion of the MEPP   circulation remit to cover most of the Middle East, but I shall resist the   temptation to write about Iran, noting only that it looms large in all   these forces.   
 
I urge all   of our members to read Israeli PM Olmert's    traditional 'New Year's Interview' carefully.  I deem it quite   extraordinary, and it sums up his recent, extremely frank tone with the people   of Israel as regards their realities and responsibilities.  The section on   settlements is especially noteworthy.  Not satisfactory to everyone,   certainly, but nevertheless quite unprecedented.  Having just visited   the region, I couldn't help but notice a sort of steely, almost surreal   seriousness underlying this process.  It is my personal opinion that   Ehud Olmert is dead serious about coming up with some kind of changed political   reality, and sources within NCF indicate that this is reflected in the US   administration. Bush and Rice have seemingly brought on board   very capable people who would not have agreed to join the efforts this   late in the administration's life, had they not been   convinced there was substance to the diplomacy.    
 
As   for several Elephants in the room, I must admit that I have not yet   understood if there exists a concrete plan to address these, and if so, what it   may be.  I am reminded of one of our distinguished guests in the last year   telling me with a glint in his eye: 'What we need is exquisitediplomacy'.  That gentleman is now retired.  But I think what   he was talking about is the kind of thing usually conducted by 'former'   officials.  
 
As with   Annapolis, the current phase in the MEPP has got one thing going for it, and   forgive the lame rehashed joke here:  Expectations are so low, that   anything that comes of it will seem a success.
 
Forgive me   for leaving you with only these brief thoughts.  I will write again   shortly.  Attached is the TAU Peace Index for December, and an   interesting position paper from JCPA, regarding the creation of a corridor   between the West Bank and the Gaza strip as part of a   settlement.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Compiled by   Davis Lewin on behalf of the NCF MEPP Working Group - with best wishes to all   our members